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Polls apart


With just three more sleeps before the nation goes to the ballot box for the General Election, the opinion polls continue to offer all parties hope - depending on which particular poll they decide is telling the truth!

Whilst the common thread across all polls has been a narrowing of the gap between the two main parties, in favour of Labour, predictions for the final outcome range from a hung Parliament and the oft-mentioned “coalition of chaos”, through to a thumping 100 seat majority for the Conservatives.

Methodological differences in how the pollsters are treating likely turnout is at the heart of this discrepancy.  Generally speaking, the polls that continue to show a large Conservative lead are those basing their turnout models on the pattern of turnout in 2015, while those showing smaller leads that are basing turnout on how likely people say they are to vote.

The Market Research Society has produced a useful guide on how to read the results of individual polls:

https://www.mrs.org.uk/pdf/readingpolls.pdf

It would be a brave, or foolish, person to put their neck on the line and predict what the final result will be.  Decide for yourselves as our own Director, Kevin Tyrrell, puts his neck on the line and predicts that on 9 June we will wake up to a Conservative majority of around 65.